Torontonians will head to the ballot box in 2026 for the city’s next mayoral election. So far, only one candidate has declared their intent to run, but speculation is circulating about who would win in a potential rematch between two politicos who have held the city’s top job.
Liaison Strategies, a national public opinion research firm, recently surveyed 1,000 Toronto voters and asked who they would vote for if an election were held today.
The poll found that Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow would narrowly beat former mayor John Tory 39 per cent to 35 per cent, respectively. Ward 19 Beaches—East York Councillor Brad Bradford follows in third with only 16 per cent.
“Regionally, Bradford’s support is relatively even across the city,” the poll noted. “Chow is strongest in downtown Toronto and Scarborough, while Tory’s base remains concentrated in Etobicoke.”
The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada using interactive voice response technology and carries a margin of error of 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20. It echoed a previous poll released earlier this year by Ipsos, which found that one-third (33 per cent) of Torontonians would re-elect Olivia Chow over John Tory, who accumulated only a quarter (25 per cent) of support. Meanwhile, 31 per cent of respondents said they would vote for another candidate.
“One of the key hurdles for both the Bradford and Tory teams is that the mayor remains broadly well-liked, with a net +13 approval rating,” analysts noted. “In recent months, Chow’s disapproval has been trending down while her approval has fluctuated with the remaining movement largely showing up among respondents who say they’re not sure about her performance.”
Tory mulls political comeback
Chow hasn’t said if she will run again in 2026 and Tory – who resigned in 2023 after admitting to an “inappropriate relationship” with a former staff member – hasn’t made an official statement either.
In June, the former three-time mayor told TorontoToday that he “couldn’t say yet” about a political comeback, and that running again is “a big decision” with “many factors” he had to take into account.
Tory previously defeated Chow in the city’s 2014 general election after incumbent mayor Rob Ford dropped out of the race after being diagnosed with cancer.
Chow eventually assumed office in 2023 after winning in a citywide by-election following Tory’s resignation. Her brief tenure has been marred by an affordability crisis, endless transit issues and property tax increases amid promises to bolster city services and infrastructure.
Even though service issues on the newly opened Finch West LRT have dominated headlines in recent weeks, most Torontonians (54 per cent) blame the failed rollout on Metrolinx, according to Liaison Strategies’ latest poll.
Toronto’s next mayoral election is slated to take place on Oct. 26.
