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TTC ridership was lower than expected this past fall despite a push by some employers to bring employees back into the office, according to a TTC draft budget document.
“Despite employer policy changes in Fall 2025 requiring more in-office workdays, no significant ridership increase has been observed. In fact, Fall 2025 ridership slightly declined versus expectations,” the document reads.
The document, which recommends the 2026 operating budgets of the TTC and Wheel-Trans, will be considered by the TTC board in January,
The TTC has struggled to return to pre-pandemic ridership numbers in recent years. But with the opening of new transit lines and new programs to improve reliability, the transit agency is projecting a slight increase in ridership next year.
According to the document, a sharp drop in the number of international student permits also contributed to lower post-secondary ridership in the fall, with pass sales half of what they were in 2024. Post-secondary ridership in 2026 is expected to remain at the levels recorded this fall.
Reliability a concern, say some
No ridership growth is expected from return-to-work policies next year, the document adds.
The document says “positive impacts” arising from return-to-work policies next year could be offset by a drop in employment numbers, fare evasion and decisions by riders to get to work through alternative ways.
As for 2026 ridership, the document says the budget estimates 426.4 million rides next year, an increase of three per cent over the projected full-year ridership of 414 million rides in 2025.
There were 421 million rides in 2024, according to a TTC corporate plan 2024 year in review progress report published Jan. 27, 2025. In 2019, before the pandemic, the progress report says there were 525 million rides.
Coun. Josh Matlow, who sits on the TTC board, says: ‘For a lot of people, even though they would like to take the TTC, if it’s not the better way because they don’t feel safe and they don’t find it reliable, they’re going to be making other choices.’ (Saeed Dehghani/CBC)
Coun. Josh Matlow, a city councillor who sits on the TTC board, said he attributes the drop to the fact that some riders do not feel safe on the TTC but also do not see the transit system as reliable. He said many people are still working from home, as well.
Matlow said he thinks staff didn’t fully take such factors into account.
“For a lot of people, even though they would like to take the TTC, if it’s not the better way, because they don’t feel safe and they don’t find it reliable, they’re going to be making other choices,” he said adding the agency must focus on investing in safety and reliability.
A TTC 2026 operating budget document says ridership is forecast to rise in 2026 and that forecast is based on Toronto’s economic outlook, special events, including the FIFA World Cup matches in June and July 2026, service enhancements in the form of Line 6 and Line 5 opening, and priority transit lanes on Bathurst and Dufferin streets. (Nathan Crocker/CBC)
Andrew Pulsifer, executive director of transit advocacy group TTCriders, said he thinks reliability and affordability are the main reasons for a decline in projected ridership.
“There’s a lack of confidence in the system when your bus or streetcar or subway doesn’t arrive on time. You’re waiting 20 minutes for it to arrive and then three or four all come at the same time. I think reliability is key,” he said.
Pulsifer said the TTC also needs to make its service cheaper.
“They’re making steps in the right direction towards that with fare capping. Another year of a fare freeze is huge as well for a lot of Torontonians facing an affordability crisis.”
There will be no fare increase for the third consecutive year to maintain accessibility and affordability for riders, according to the TTC. The budget also introduces fare capping on Sept. 1, 2026, to allow adult, youth, senior and fare pass riders to pay for 47 rides per month, after which additional trips are free.
TTC needs federal, provincial help, advocate says
Pulsifer said for the TTC to truly succeed, it’ll need help from other levels of government.
“We just need the other levels of government to step up and and start contributing towards operating funding of the TTC… It can’t just come from the fare box and the property tax base,” Pulsifer said.
The document says ridership forecast for 2026 is based on Toronto’s economic outlook, special events, including the FIFA World Cup matches in June and July 2026, service enhancements in the form of Line 6 and Line 5 opening, and priority transit lanes on Bathurst and Dufferin streets.
